Three Goalies to Stream For Week 5
Goalies worth picking up that are rostered in less than 20% of Yahoo leagues.
In my first actual post for this blog, I am going to look at three goalies to stream for week five of the NHL fantasy season. I plan to make this a weekly Sunday/Monday post, with the focus being on three goalies who could widely be available on the waiver wire in Yahoo Leagues.
For context, all the rostering information will come from Yahoo-based leagues. I may mention Fantrax or other leagues (like ESPN or Sleeper) from time to time. When it comes to full-season fantasy on this blog though, I will defer to Yahoo formats.
Anton Forsberg, Ottawa
5% Rostered in Yahoo
Linus Ullmark has ascended as the top goaltender for the 6-5 Senators and his 90% rostered percentage in Yahoo reflects that. However, one could argue that Forsberg has been the more effective goalie this season in Ottawa thus far.
In six games, Forsberg has a 2.65 GAA with a .910 save percentage. According to Money Puck, he's saved 1.7 goals above expected which ranks 17th. He also has a Goals Saved Above Expected per 60 minutes of 0.322. That ranks 18th of current goalies and puts him just below Washington's Logan Thompson but above Vegas' Ilya Samsonov and Montreal Sam Montembault.
Through six games, the 31-year-old Swede has the same number of quality starts as Ullmark in the same number of appearances. He also has one fewer "Really Bad Start" than Ullmark, according to Dobber Hockey.
Forsberg has a much better even-strength percentage (.912) than Ullmark (.906) this season. Conversely, he has struggled a lot more in the Power Play (.750 PP SV% compared to Ullmark's 1.000 PP SV%), and shots between 1-15 ft (.767 to Ullmark's .889). Forsberg has done much better on longer-range shots, as evidenced by his .943 mark on 16-30 ft shots and .955 mark on 31+ feet shots.
The Senators have three games this week with a road contest in Buffalo on Tuesday, a home contest on Thursday against the Islanders, and a road contest in Boston to end their week. The Bruins have struggled offensively this year, as their 2.62 GF/G is sixth-worst in hockey.
Forsberg will at least get one start this week and the Islanders or Bruins could be ideal matchups where he could put up a lot of saves and garner a win.
Evan Merzlikins, Columbus
12% rostered in Yahoo
The Blue Jackets have a three-game slate in the West Coast in week five, highlighted by trips to San Jose, Los Angeles, and Anaheim. That should give some prime opportunities for easy wins for Merzlikins, the Jackets' top goaltender according to Dobber Hockey's Columbus depth chart.
Merzlikins is only rostered in 12% of leagues, which feels low considering the Blue Jackets' 5-5 record and the 30-year-old's stat line. In five games, he has a 2-3 record with two quality starts, a GAA of 2.86 and save percentage of .907.
For those not impressed, his expected numbers look a lot better via Money Puck. His 2.71 xGAA is 15 points better than his actual GAA. His xSave% on unblocked shots is also three points higher at .956. Hence, there seems to be an element of bad luck going on with Merzlikins so far this year.
This could be the week that Merzlikins turns it around, especially with winnable contests against the Sharks and Ducks. He had two quality starts against Edmonton on October 28th and the Islanders on October 30th, the latter of which was a shutout.
It wouldn't be surprising to see him produce similar results against much lesser competition this week, even if it may be on the road.
Jake Allen, New Jersey
13% rostered in Yahoo
Jacob Markstrom has been the primary goalie in New Jersey with over double the appearances of Allen this season. That said, the Devils have a four-game week and Allen will be between the pipes on Monday night against Edmonton.
Allen's numbers aren't great at the surface level this season. He has a 3.25 GAA and 0.876 save percentage through four outings.
That said, his 2.97 xGAA is more palatable and his .947 xSave% on unblocked shots is five points better than his actual. Much like Merzlikins, there could be some positive regression coming for Allen soon, though Allen's upside certainly isn't as high as the Columbus goaltender.
I primarily like the matchup for Allen against Edmonton on Monday night.
The Oilers are coming off a heated game in Calgary on Sunday night, and they have the fourth-lowest GF/G mark in the league, via Dobber. Edmonton also doesn't have Connor McDavid in the lineup and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins hasn't quite been as effective as the Oilers' top-line center, with only five points in 12 games. Furthermore, Allen has a much better history against the Oilers than Markstrom.
A strong start to the week could help Allen earn another winnable start later in the week. The Devils play Montreal at home on Thursday, the Islanders in New York on Friday, and San Jose back in Jersey on Saturday.
Allen could be a sneaky play for a two-win week if he can garner the win against the Oilers on Monday night.
Photo Credit: Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers