Sleeper NHL Picks For November 26th
Four Players to Pick for Wednesday's Slate
I was traveling over the weekend, so I wasn’t able to finish my “Studs and Duds” post on Sunday. I will try to get a Weekend Streaming post tomorrow or Friday morning to identify a forward, defenseman, and goalie to stream in fantasy hockey over the weekend. The holidays can be a tough time for content, though the reasoning is a good one (spending time with family, friends, and loved ones).
We got a full slate of games on Wednesday, with 15 games tonight. The only teams not playing are the Kings and Oilers. With no games on Thanksgiving, it makes sense that the NHL has a full slate today and on Friday (15 games).
In this post, I am going to share my Sleeper NHL picks, focusing on players from the Flames, Avalanche, Bruins, and Flyers.
Nazem Kadri, CGY, Over 0.5 Goals
Kadri has been on a hot streak, with seven points in his last four games. However, all seven of his points have been assists, and his shooting percentage over the previous 10 games is low as well, at 2.8% (he has only one goal over that time frame).
Tampa Bay has sported a tough blue line this year, especially recently. They have only allowed 2.71 GA/G and 24.1 SA/G in their last seven games. That said, the Flames are averaging 31.4 S/G over the previous two weeks, the third-highest mark in the NHL. Thus, it will be the Flames’ hot attack versus the Lightning’s brick wall defense in this one, especially with Andrei Vasilevskiy in the net.
Nonetheless, I like the Flames in this one and think Kadri, who’s due for a goal, will be able to find the net against a tough Tampa Bay team.
Gabriel Landeskog, COL, Over 2.5 Shots
Landeskog has been a bit frigid in terms of production this year, especially in the last two weeks (though that’s to be expected considering all the injury issues he’s dealt with over the past three seasons). He’s only averaging 0.32 PTS/G and 1.45 SOG/G in 22 games played. His five-on-five shooting percentage is also slightly lower than expected at 8.0%, according to Dobber. Furthermore, he has just one point in his last four games and is averaging 0.40 PTS/G in his previous ten.
The Sharks have been a nice story this year, as their 25 points tie them for fifth in the Pacific Division with the Edmonton Oilers. However, while goalie Yaroslav Askarov has been an absolute stud this year, the San Jose blue line gives up a lot of shots. They are allowing 31.1 SA/G, the highest in the Pacific and Western Division. On the flip side, the Avalanche produces the most S/G in the Western Division at 33.
Landeskog may not get points or find the net, but I think he will get three or more shots against the Sharks’ blue line, especially at home.
David Pastrnak, BOS, Over 1.5 Points
Pastrnak has been a scoring machine for a Boston team that is third in the Atlantic Division with 26 points (behind only Tampa and Detroit). While the rest of the Bruins’ attack has been cold (six goals in their last three games), the 29-year-old Czech winger has three points in his previous three games and 10 points in his last seven. Over the previous two weeks, he has averaged 1.43 PTS/G, 3.6 SOG/G, and has five power-play points.
Much like Kadri and the Flames, Pasta and the Bruins go up against a scorching hot blue line in the Islanders, who are allowing just 1.86 GA/G over the past two weeks. Thus, picking Pastrnak to get two points seems a bit overzealous at the surface level, especially with Ilya Sorokin confirmed in the net for the Islanders (he’s overcome a cold start and been back to expected).
That said, the Islanders are averaging only 2.57 GF/G in that time frame, the same as the Bruins. I think Boston can impose their style on New York, and if that’s the case, Pastrnak is the most likely to produce, as evidenced by his 76.3% IPP this season.
Trevor Zegras, PHI, Under 1.5 Shots
It’s been a turnaround season for Zegras since coming over from Anaheim to Philadelphia this offseason. He is averaging a point per game and 2.38 SOG/G, and sports a PDO of 1,015 and an IPP of 80.8%, showing how involved he is in the Flyers’ attack. According to Left Wing Lock, Zegras is getting second-line duties and is on the first power play line, and his minutes (18:29 TOI; 2:38 PP TOI) illustrate that.
Zergas has scored points in his last six games, including three goals. His shooting percentage over that period is 14.3%, and he is averaging 3.5 SOG/G. Thus, he should be an easy over on the 1.5 SOG/G mark.
However, the Flyers are on the road against a tough Florida Panthers team that is 4-2 in their last six games. The Panthers are allowing a lot of shots in the past two weeks (28.8 SA/G), but they are also forcing a lot of shots too (30 SF/G). Conversely, the Flyers are averaging only 25 SF/G over the past two weeks, the ninth-lowest mark in the NHL.
I think Zegras suffers in this matchup and isn’t able to overcome that 1.5 SOG mark in Florida this evening.
Photo Credit: David Zalubowski/AP