Rookie Review: Week 9 Edition

Looking at Strong Rookie Performers From the Past Two Weeks

We’re closing out week eight of the fantasy hockey season, and with week nine starting tomorrow, I wanted to look back at some rookie performers who have stood out over the last 14 days.

Rookies tend to be complex dilemmas in fantasy hockey.

In dynasty and keeper formats, it’s easier for fantasy hockey managers to invest in rookie talent, knowing they can impact their rosters long-term. In re-draft leagues? It’s a little more challenging to be patient with them, especially if they’re not providing immediate production.

In this series, called “Rookie Review,” I will examine rookies' performance over the last two weeks and consider whether they are better dynasty/keeper league options or perhaps valuable for re-draft formats.

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Macklin Celebrini, C, SJS (57% rostered)

I’m curious to see what the Sharks would’ve been like this year had Celebrini been 100% at the start of the season.

After losing their first nine games of the year (including two in overtime), San Jose has gone 9-6-3 in their last 18 games. The big difference between the previous 18 games and their first nine has been a healthy Celebrini, the 1st overall pick in the 2024 NHL Draft.

The 19-year-old Sharks center has been on fire recently. He has seven points in his last four games and 10 in his previous nine, including five goals and five assists. In addition to averaging 1.00 PTS/G in his previous nine, he also has averaged 3.0 SOG/G, 4.2 PPP/60, and a 60% Power Play percentage.

In 15 GP, Celebrini’s overall metrics are impressive.

He’s averaging 0.93 PTS/G and 3.13 SOG/G. He has been a goal-scoring machine, with eight goals, which translated to 0.53 Goals/G. Lastly, he’s avoided the box (0.27 PIM/G), and he’s also been an excellent source of blocks, averaging 0.80 per game. The blocks show that he is valuable for banger leagues and the kind of gamer who will do what it takes to win games for a young Sharks team.

Celebrini has primarily been on the first line recently with William Eklund and Fabian Zetterlund, and the trio has been productive for San Jose.

In 59:14 TOI, the line produced six points, a +4 plus/minus, and a CF% of 49.1%. Thus, fantasy managers who roster Celebrini should feel optimistic about his point outlook, regardless of format, while on that line. Furthermore, managers looking for a boost in point production may also consider Eklund (24% rostered) or Zetterlund (46% rostered) if available on the waiver wire.

Update (5:12 p.m.): Celebrini was named the NHL’s Rookie of the Month for November.

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Maxim Tsyplakov, LW, NYI (6% rostered)

The Islanders’ Russian winger is not well-known in fantasy, and his six percent rostered rate demonstrates that. However, Tsyplakov has been sneakily productive and could be an intriguing option in keeper, dynasty, and deep league formats.

The 26-year-old rookie has experienced some regression over the past two weeks. He has three points in his past eight games and has averaged 0.38 PTS/G, 14 points down from his 0.52 PTS/G in 25 games played this season.

On the other hand, his shot numbers hint at a bounce back soon.

His 5-on-5 SH% in his previous eight is 10.5%, his Corsi is 50.5%, and Fenwick is 50.4% over that timespan. He averages 1.40 SOG/G for the year and sports a SH% of 8.6%. That shows that Tsyplakov is getting opportunities to score points, and his 57.5% xG% in 5-on-5 situations illustrates that he could be due for a positive goal swoon.

Tsyplakov is on the Islanders’ second line with Kyle Palmieri and Brock Nelson, and the trio thrives with its heavy usage (208:46 TOI). The line has scored 17 goals, has a +5 plus/minus, and generates an SF% of 51.3% and a CF% of 49.4%. Tsyplakov also seems to benefit from Palmieri and Nelson’s play, as he has a 40% secondary assist rate.

The Islanders are second-to-last in the Metropolitan Division as of Sunday with 24 points. Thus, I wonder if they could soon be due for some line changes, which could affect the Russian rookie’s value.

For now, he’s worth picking up as either a forward streamer in re-draft formats or perhaps as a lottery ticket in dynasty and keeper leagues.

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Will Smith, RW, SJS (7% rostered)

More Sharks? Yep, more Sharks and the numbers back up Smith being a hot target in fantasy, especially since he should be widely available in most leagues.

Smith has eight points in his last eight games, including three goals. He has also averaged 1.00 PTS/G, 4.1 PTS/60, and 9.9 PPP/60 over that sample. Even though he doesn’t have Celebrini’s profile, he’s arguably been just as productive recently on the Sharks’ second line with Klim Klostin and Mikael Granlund (4 GF, +3, 61% CF%).

Though Smith has boosted fantasy rosters over the past two weeks, I am hesitant to declare him an “all fantasy format” player, primarily based on his shot metrics.

His SH% is 16.1% for the season, much higher than his 9.8% 5-on-5 SH%. Much of his recent production has come on the power play, and his 9.9 PPP/60 in his previous eight games is significantly higher than his 5.9 PPP/60 for the year. Furthermore, he’s only averaging 1:50 PP TOI, which translates to a 36.6 PP%.

Thus, it’s hard to bank on Smith for long-term value in a re-draft league when so much of his production has come in those slim power play opportunities.

Lastly, Smith’s secondary assist percentage is mediocre at 33.3%, and he doesn’t offer much in hits (0.23 Hits/G) or blocks (0.09). He also averages only 14:08 TOI and sees occasional nights off on back-to-back games (though that didn’t happen last night, which is a good sign).

Therefore, Smith should primarily be seen as a keeper, dynasty, and deep league option for now, though fantasy managers should continue to monitor him on their respective watch lists.

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Lane Hutson, D, MTL (33% rostered)

The 20-year-old Montreal defenseman is an intriguing study for fantasy managers looking to improve on the blue line.

On one hand, there’s a lot to like from Hutson’s profile.

In 23 games, the American rookie averages 23:08 TOI while paired with Mike Matheson on the first defensive line. He also is averaging 2:26 PP TOI on the second power-play unit, paired with Emil Heineman on the blue line. So he’s getting ample opportunities to collect fantasy production with the Canadiens this year.

Hutson has undoubtedly been an apple farmer so far this season. He has 13 assists and averages 0.57 A/G. His secondary assist percentage is also high at 53.8%, but it’s not alarmingly high. That means Hutson can be depended on as a good source of assists going forward.

Regarding his banger stats, he’s averaging 0.70 Hits/G and 1.48 Blocks/G, with 16 hits and 34 blocks total for the year.

Thus, Huston is the prototypical Montreal banger blue liner: he sets up his teammates for goals and gets the physical stats that fantasy managers desire in banger league formats. Unfortunately, the shots and goals are just non-existent.

His shooting percentage is zero, as he has not netted a goal this season. His overall shot metrics are a little better for a defenseman, as he averages 1.0 SOG/G and a 10.8% 5-on-5 SH%. However, his 1006 PDO and 45.3% CF% suggest that goals may be challenging for Hutson this season with Montreal.

At 20 years old, he’s worth investing in dynasty and keeper formats, and his 83% Fantrax rostered percentage suggests that many managers in those styles of leagues have already done so (Fantrax has a better setup for dynasty).

The lack of goals may make managers hesitant to pick him up in redraft leagues, especially in roto or H2H category formats. That said, in H2H points formats, Hutson is a blue liner worth picking up, especially if banger stats are incorporated into the scoring.

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Justus Annunen, G, NSH (15% rostered)

I already discussed Annunen in a previous post that focused on rookie goaltenders. With Alexandar Georgiev struggling, Annunen seemed to be in a situation in Colorado where he could accumulate starts and provide sneaky fantasy production at the goaltender position.

Unfortunately, things have gone south for Annunen since that post.

In the last two weeks, the Finnish goalie has only made two starts and is 1-1 with a 4.66 GAA and 0.833 SV% in those two outings. Georgiev hasn’t been great, but he’s produced a 3-2-1 record in his last six games and sported a 2.91 GAA and 0.893 SV% in the previous two weeks. That is significantly better production than Annunen.

As a result of the Avalanche’s loss of trust in Annunen, Colorado traded him to Nashville in a package for Predators goaltender Scott Wedgewood. Wedgewood is expected to see more starts going forward than Annunen would have received, though Georgiev will likely be Colorado’s primary goalie.

Annunen’s situation may be even more challenging in Nashville, even though the Predators have underwhelmed this season (20 points and second-to-last in the Central Division).

Juuse Saros is entrenched as the Predators’ primary goaltender, and he has seen heavy usage this season, playing in 21 of Nashville’s 25 total games. The heavy log time between the pipes makes sense, considering Saros’ 2.62 GAA, 0.911 SV%, and 12 quality starts this year. Hence, it’s hard to see Annunen getting more time in Nashville than in Colorado.

Most fantasy managers seem to feel the same way, as Annunen’s rostered percentage has dropped 13% since my earlier post that featured him.

Suppose the Predators continue to decline (and all signs point to them doing so). In that case, managers may think about picking Annunen up later in the year, especially if Nashville decides to manage Saros’ workload down the stretch.

However, I am not sure the Predators are at that point yet, so it’s hard to justify rostering Annunen in any league format due to the unclear picture of his playing time behind Saros.

Photo Credit: Stan Szeto-Imagn Images