“Hold or Fold” for Week 9
Looking at Cold Players from This Most Recent Stretch
It’s Thursday, so we’re reaching the weekend end of week nine in fantasy hockey. This is a time for fantasy hockey managers to ponder possible moves, especially if they are experiencing rough performances in categories or points matchups this week.
In this edition of “Hold or Fold,” I will analyze five players who have been on cold streaks over the past two weeks. That includes players from the Predators, Golden Knights, Bruins (I've been looking at many of them lately), Hurricanes, and Capitals.
Let’s examine week nine’s “hold or fold” candidates.
Center: Elias Lindholm, BOS (44% rostered)
I examined Lindholm before on Goalie Streamer, examining his outlook (and two others) in Boston after head coach Jim Montgomery was fired.
Forward Thinking in Boston?
After a disappointing 8-9-3 start in 20 games, the Boston Bruins made a coaching change today, firing Jim Montgomery.
Things haven’t been much better for Lindholm since that post on November 19th.
Over the past four games, the 30-year-old Swedish center has zero points. He had a three-assist game on November 27th against the Islanders in which he had a +2 plus/minus. Since then, Lindholm has had little impact in fantasy, thus explaining why he’s only rostered in 44% of Yahoo leagues (a five percent decline from when I wrote about him on November 19th).
Lindholm has zero points, three SOG, and a +1 plus/minus in his last four games. He has produced some banger-league value, with four hits and blocks over that timespan. Unfortunately, that’s insufficient to compensate for the lack of point production since Monty was let go in Boston.
He has collected four points over the last two weeks (eight games), suitable for 0.40 PTS/G. His SH% is high at 12.5%, but he’s not producing a significant volume of shots. He only averaged 1.0 SOG/G over the last two weeks, and his 7.9% 5-on-5 SH% and 48.5 Corsi are also paltry marks.
Lindholm's saving grace as a fantasy player is that he plays on talented lines.
He primarily plays with David Pastrnak and Justin Brazeau, and the line has produced six goals, a +2 plus/minus, and a 59.4% CF in 112:12 TOI together. He is also on the first power play with Pastrnak, Brad Marchand, Pavel Zacha, and Charlie McAvoy, and he gets plenty of PP TOI, as evidenced by his 64.2% PP%.
At the very least, he’s setting himself up for assists, and his 60% secondary assist % demonstrates that. It also explains how he averages 0.46 PTS/G this year despite only averaging 0.11 Goals/G.
There’s no question that Lindholm has been disappointing for Bruins fans and fantasy managers who rostered him this season. However, fantasy managers should still hold him for now, even if his 38-point 82-game pace is nearly 10 points down from his 48-point pace last year with Calgary and Vancouver.
Left/Right Wing: Andrei Svechnikov, CAR (95% rostered)
Svechnikov has zero points in his last four games and two points in his previous eight games. He has two goals and a 12.5% SH% in the last two weeks, but his 0.25 PTS/G and 0.9 PTS/60 over that span somewhat dilutes those goal-scoring numbers.
When looking at his Buy/Sell meter metrics, it seems like Svechnikov is living up to expectations in Carolina this season. His SH% is decent at 10.3%. His 5-on-5 SH% is a little down at 6.2% but perfectly serviceable. He also has a 50% secondary assist %, demonstrating that he benefits from being on a primary line with Jack Raslovic and Sebastian Aho.
Even though the line has a -2 plus/minus in 148:44 TOI, they have an SF% of 51.3% and CF% of 58.5%. Thus, they’re getting shots, which only benefits Svechnikov, even if he’s not the one netting goals.
On a positive note, the 24-year-old Russian has been producing in other categories over his latest cold stretch. He has 16 SOG and 13 hits over his last eight games and averaged 2.7 PPP/60. Hence, even though the goals and assists haven’t come recently, he’s getting shots and mixing things up to generate points for fantasy managers, especially in banger formats.
A negative about Svechnikov is that he’s been getting a lot of minutes in the box recently. He has 10 PIM in his previous eight games and is averaging 1.04 PIM/G this season.
Svechnikov is a physical player, which adds to his fantasy value. However, he needs to manage that physicality and be more disciplined so he doesn’t spend so much time in the penalty box. That only hurts his ice time and fantasy production.
With a 3.12 SOG/G average, things will swing soon for Svechnikov, making him a hold for fantasy managers.
Left Wing: Filip Forsberg, NSH (99% rostered)
Forsberg was initially on fire to start the season, and his overall metrics still look good at the surface level.
The Swedish winger has nine goals, 17 points, and 90 shots on goal in 26 games this season with Nashville. He is averaging 3.46 SOG/G, 0.65 PTS/G, and 0.35 Goals/G, all solid marks. Lastly, his 10% SH% and 75% secondary assist percentage demonstrate that he’s one of the primary playmakers on a Predators team that’s been one of the worst in the Central division (their 20 points are only better than the last-place Chicago Blackhawks).
Unfortunately, the last two weeks have showcased a different Forsberg, not in a good way.
He has only two points in his last seven games and a 4.5% SH%. His 5-on-5 SH% is 5.6%, and his PTS/G is 0.29, 36 points lower than his season average. Thus, it’s hard to look at those numbers and feel comfortable since many fantasy managers invested serious capital into Forsberg in their respective drafts (including myself in one head-to-head categories league).
That said, I still think this is a tough stretch that Forsberg will snap out of, even though the Predators are not a good team.
He’s averaging 3.1 SOG/G over the last two weeks, and he’s still a primary power player with a 68.5% PP%. His 977 PDO and 5-on-5 SH% are low, but his Corsi is high at 54.8. His primary line with Ryan O’Reilly and Gustav Nyquist may have a -2 plus/minus, but they are averaging a CF% of 58.8% in 177:05 TOI.
The shots are there for Forsberg and his linemates. The Predators need to finish those shots and turn them into goals. Perhaps a Saturday matchup at home against Ottawa will help (Forsberg again went pointless in a 3-0 loss to the Canadiens on Thursday).
Defenseman: Alex Pietrangelo, VGK (83% rostered)
I don’t think Pietrangelo is as bad as Carolina’s Brent Burns, but it feels like the 34-year-old Vegas blue liner is coasting on reputation rather than performance recently.
Overall, the metrics are pretty good for Pietrangelo, who’s bounced back a bit after a 33-point campaign with the Golden Knights last year. He has 15 points this season and is on pace for 51 over 82 games. That’s a significant improvement from his 42-point pace in 2023-2024.
However, the last two weeks have been ugly for Pietrangelo.
He has only one point in six games and is averaging 0.17 PTS/G for the season. He has a zero SH% and is averaging 1.80 SOG/G.
The SOG/G is a slight regression from his season-long total (1.96 SOG/G). Conversely, his SH% is much lower than his 4.3% mark, which still feels a bit low overall for a player with Pietrangelo’s fantasy reputation.
Pietrangelo is a more complicated banger league threat this season. At the surface, his 1.63 Blocks/Game isn’t bad. However, it’s nearly a block lower than his block averages from the past two seasons, and it’s the first time his blocks have been under 2 per game since the 2020-2021 season, his first year in Vegas.
Furthermore, he’s averaging 0.82 Hits/G, a slight improvement from his 0.72 mark a season ago. Nonetheless, it’s still not an eye-popping mark for a defenseman in fantasy. While it’s suitable for a point-generating blue-liner like Pietrangelo, it’s nothing special if the points aren’t coming.
I’m not ready to drop Pietrangelo, but I would consider trading him, especially since his pedigree will generate interest from opposing managers in one’s league. Thus, he’s a fold candidate, but only in a trade scenario.
Goalie: Charlie Lindgren, WSH (31% rostered)
Is Lindgren the No. 1 goalie in Washington? He has 12 starts this season, and fellow Capitals goaltender Logan Thompson has 13. If anything, it feels like Lindgren and Thompson are 1A and 1B, and the Dobber Capitals depth chart seems to confirm that.
That said, I’ve soured on Lindgren, and I think many fantasy managers have, too, as evidenced by his 31% rostered percentage in Yahoo (and Thompson’s 74% rostered percentage).
It’s been a rough couple of games for Lindgren over the past week.
He gave up three goals on 28 shot attempts against the Lightning on November 27th, resulting in a GAA of 3.01, an SV% of 0.893, and a GSAA of -0.23. He was even worse in his recent start on November 30th against the Devils. Lindgren gave up five goals on 27 shot attempts, resulting in a 5.00 GAA, 0.815 SV%, and -2.33 GSAA.
For the season, Lindgren’s GSAA is -2.42, a significant decline from his 11.52 mark last year. Furthermore, his EV SV% is down at 0.888, a 26-point difference from the previous year. His 58.6% QS% is over two points better than a year ago, and he’s still producing in Short-Handed situations with a SH SV% of 0.897. However, he’s trending downward overall, and it seems like Thompson is becoming the more trusted goalie in the nation’s capital.
Unless one is in the deepest fantasy league, Lindgren should be an easy fold-and-drop for fantasy managers.
Photo Credit: Amy C Irvin