"Hold or Fold?" Looking at Cold Players in Week 6
We're midway through week six of the NHL Fantasy season. At this point, fantasy managers have made plenty of decisions on their lower-end picks in their respective drafts and have been active on the waiver wire bringing in new faces to their fantasy roster (or at least I hope you have been for your league's sake).
However, what about those players who were drafted in the early rounds and have underperformed so far this season? Should fantasy managers look to part ways, via a trade or a straight-up drop? Or should they give those struggling players a bit more time to figure it out?
Hence, should managers "Hold" or "Fold" that player for the foreseeable future?
Let's take a look at four players that will be the focus of the "hold or fold" piece in week six.
Center: Mika Zibanejad, NYR (91% rostered)
To be fair, Zibanejad has been trending downward the past couple of seasons, so a rough start should've been expected by fantasy managers.
After an 81-point season in 21-22 and 91-point season in 22-23, Zibanejad had a 72-point season in 81 games in 23-24. His PTS/G dropped from 1.11 in 22-23 to 0.89 in 23-24 and his SH% went from 15.5% two season ago to 11.8% last year. The ice time remained the same as well, as he averaged 19:58 TOI in 22-23 and 19:45 TOI in 23-24.
Even though the Rangers center was not trending in a good way last year, things have fallen apart quite a bit for 31-year-old Swede.
His SH% is down to 6.9% and his 5 on 5 shooting% is down from 8.5% last year to 6.6% this season. The secondary assist percentage has gone from 34.8% to a ridiculous 11.1%, and his plus/minus is -6, down from 15 in 23-24 and 25 in 22-23.
With 11 points (two goals and nine assists), two hits and eight blocks, it's hard to see what kind of value Zibanejad is providing fantasy managers right now, regardless of format. He's also been regulated primarily to a second line with Reilly Smith and Chris Kreider that has a SF% of 42.2%, a CF% of 44.9%, and a plus/minus of zero.
He did see some time with Artemi Panarin and Alexis Lafreniere on the second-line against the Jets, but they produced a -3 plus/minus, a SF% of 18.2% and CF% of 28.6%. While that line may need more time, it doesn't seem to be enhance Zibanejad's fantasy value.
With a 91% rostered percentage, it seems hard to part ways with Zibanejad, especially considering the Rangers have just underwhelmed so far this season and could be due for a breakout later. That said, the TOI is down to 18:19, and Vincent Trocheck is established on the first line while third-line center Filip Chytil is generating more shots (11.4% SH%, 11.7% 5 on 5 SH%).
It may be tough for one's roster, but managers need to look to fold on and deal Zibanejad in some capacity before his value tanks any further.
Wing: Jason Robertson, DAL (98% rostered)
It wasn't too long ago when Robertson was the rage of the fantasy hockey world with 109 points and 46 goals with the Stars in 22-23. As a fellow Filipino, I nearly purchased a Robertson jersey in solidarity, even though I loathe the Stars as a San Jose Sharks fan.
Much like Zibanejad, though, Robertson's decline has been brewing since last year, though one could argue that the 25-year-old's crash has been worse than the Rangers center.
After an 80-point season in 23-24, Robertson was rated 7th in Dobber's Top 300 Skaters rankings going into this season. Unfortunately, nothing has gone right for Robertson through 14 games with the Stars.
Robertson has four goals and three assists for seven points total. His PTS/G is 0.50, down from 0.98 in 23-24 and 1.33 in 22-23. The SH% is down to 11.1%, a 1.5% regression from a year ago, and his 5 on 5 SH% is down to 8.8%, a 1.6% decline. His secondary assist% is also down to 33.3%, down from 54.9% in 23-24.
Unlike Zibanejad, I remain a bit more optimistic about Robertson and his outlook for the remainder of the year.
Robertson is still getting first line duties with Roope Hintz and either Logan Stankoven or Wyatt Johnston, the latter who's been the most recent linemate with Robertson and Hintz. Hintz is struggling too, as he only has nine points this year. Thus, it's been a perfect storm for the Dallas first line, and they've been getting help from the second line, primarily Matt Duchene, who has 18 points.
When looking at Robertson and his line, the data still looks encouraging, which is why I would categorize him as a hold for now.
His primary line has a SF% of 51.4% and his CF% is 51.8, so shots are still being generated. His PDO is also 1031, which according to Dobber is right in line with the expectation for him going into this season. Lastly, his xGF/60 of 2.65 is only down 0.03 from a year ago. At the very least, he can still be the fantasy hockey player that he was in 23-24 with the right adjustments.
Robertson will not be the MVP-caliber winger this year that he was in 22-23. However, I would encourage managers who roster Robertson to stay patient, especially as the Stars schedule gets a little easier this week (Boston, Minnesota, Anaheim, and San Jose from Nov. 14-20).
Defensemen: Luke Hughes, NJ (46% rostered)
Hughes wasn't awesome in 23-24 as he only had 47 points, 24 hits, and 57 blocks in 82 games with the Devils. He also had a plus/minus of -25, making him nearly unplayable in formats that utilize plus/minus scoring.
However, he was only 20 years old last year, so there was some hope that the 2021 4th overall pick would show some progress as a fantasy defenseman this season.
Unfortunately, it's been a bit of a disaster for Hughes as a fantasy-worth asset.
In 10 games, Hughes has zero goals and one assist, good for one point total. His SH is zero, and his SOG/G is 1.1. His secondary assist% is unsustainably high at 100%, and his PTS/60 is down to 0.3, 1.3 points lower than a year ago.
As a result, his role on the Devils blue line has decreased this year.
His PP% is 29.2%, down from 70.8% last year. He still is paired with Dougie Hamilton, who has 14 points total and 6 PPP. However, Hamilton is getting 3:27 PP TOI this year while Hughes is only getting 1:02. The Devils have been opting for a four-forward power play (primarily Stefan Noesen, Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt, and Jack Hughes) and the younger Hughes has unfortunately been the odd man out.
Hughes would be a better option as a defenseman if he was providing banger stats, but he only has six hits and eight blocks. There are other options on the waiver wire who can provide the same amount of point production as Hughes but with way more banger league production. Nashville's Jeremy Lauzon and Luke Schenn and fellow Devils teammate Brenden Dillon are examples.
I get that Hughes has the name pedigree and still has youth on his side. However, unless one is in a keeper league, Hughes is worth folding on for now.
Goalie: Adin Hill, VGK (81% rostered)
Considered a Tier 2 goalie and ranked 16th overall in Dobber's Top 100 Keeper League Goaltender rankings, it's been a cold start for Hill in Vegas this year.
The Golden Knights have an excellent cadre of forward and defense talent, which has seemed to hide some of Hill's flaws through 10 of his appearances this season. He has a 6-3 -1 record with 1 shutout, which is solid at the surface level.
Conversely, his GAA is high at 3.41 and SV% is only 0.875. He also only has a quality start% of 20 percent and a really bad start% of 40%. His GSAA is -6.30, tremendously down from his 6.67 mark in 23-24 and 9.70 mark in 22-23. Hill has been particularly bad in the power play, as his PP SV% is 0.750, down from 0.839 a year ago.
The QS% began trending down last year as it went from 59.3% in 27 games to 48.6% in 35 games. It seems like favoring Hill over former goalie teammate Logan Thompson has bit the Knights on the butt, as Thompson is currently undefeated this year and sports much better metrics with the Washington Capitals this season (57.1% QS%, 2.55 GAA, 0.910 SV%).
A development to pay attention to with Hill is the impending return of Ilya Samsonov, who was pretty effective in five games before going down to injury. Samsonov has a 2.95 GAA, .0905 SV%, QS% of 60%, and GSAA of 0.80. The Russian-born goalie could eat into Hill's time between the pipes if the Canadian doesn't turn things around soon.
Hill is a hold for now just because there isn't a great option for Vegas beyond Samsonov, especially with Akira Schmid recently demoted back to the AHL. Samsonov should be returning to the ice soon, which means that managers who roster Hill need to not just keep an eye on Hill, but Samsonov as a possible replacement on their own fantasy hockey roster, if available.
Photo Credit: Jess Starr/The Hockey Writers