"Hold or Fold" for Week 7
Looking at cold players from this most recent week of fantasy play
We’re about to hit the weekend slate of games in week 7. That means those in head-to-head leagues have a good idea of how their respective fantasy teams are doing and what changes they may need to make roster-wise before Saturday’s main slate.
Thus, let’s look at four players and whether or not they are worth keeping in fantasy in this edition of “Hold or Fold” for the games from November 18th to the 24th. Three players will be from the Central division and one will be from the Atlantic.
Center: Joel Eriksson Ek, MIN (82% rostered)
It’s been a rough recent stretch for the Wild center. He has zero points in his last three games and only has one point in his last five. In this most recent five-game stretch, his Pts/G is down to 0.20. On a positive note, he does have a plus/minus of +3 in this cold streak, as well as five hits and a block, keeping him somewhat serviceable in banger formats.
Even though the results haven’t been there for Eriksson Ek, he’s still producing on the shot volume, which is an encouraging sign.
In the last five games, the 27-year-old Swede is producing 2.2 SOG/G and 8.6 SOG/60. Additionally, his 5-on-5 SH% is 10.6%, and he’s had a 1041 PDO, 56.7% Corsi, and 58% Fenwick over this cold stretch.
While the lack of points is frustrating for those who roster Eriksson Ek, the shot metrics hint that a breakthrough could be coming soon, especially considering the strength of this Wild roster (their 27 points is good for second in the Central).
Then again, it’s been a bit of a season of regression for Eriksson Ek overall.
While the shooting numbers are up, he only has eight points in 15 games played, good for a PTS/G of 0.53. The latter is down from 0.83 last year and 0.78 in 22-23. As of Thursday, he’s on track to score 44 points in 82 games, which isn’t exactly promising for a skater who ranked 106 in Dobber’s Top 300 rankings in the preseason.
Eriksson Ek may not be a scoring threat for now, but fantasy managers have to trust in his shooting volume and his contribution in other areas. The secondary assist % is high at 66.7%. His plus/minus is +7 for the year. He has 24 hits, making him a nice source of banger stats from the center position.
He’s a clear hold, but fantasy managers who roster Eriksson Ek should keep an eye on the shot numbers and his ice time, which is 17:41, over two minutes down from his TOI a season ago. Second-line center Marco Rossi has 15 points, so if Eriksson Ek continues to struggle, we could see Eriksson Ek’s TOI slowly shaved off as the season progresses, even if he stays on the first line.
Wing: Patrick Kane, DET (65% rostered)
Kane’s been coasting on reputation for a while in fantasy.
After a 91-point season in 21-22 with Chicago, he only had 57 in 73 games last year. He bounced back a bit in his first season in Detroit, scoring 47 points in 50 games (he missed 32 due to recovery from hip surgery). His 82 GP point pace was 77 last season and he produced 0.94 PTS/G, making him a sneaky play for fantasy managers who stashed him or picked him up off waivers last season.
Unfortunately, Kane’s sophomore season with the Red Wings hasn’t been nearly as stellar.
He has zero points in his last four games and two points in his last eight games (1 goal and 1 assist). His 0.25 PTS/G over those two weeks is paltry, and his shot metrics aren’t all that impressive either. His Corsi is 41.7% and Fenwick is 39.1%, which correlates with his 6.9% 5-on-5 SH% over that cold streak.
For the season, Kane has 10 points in 19 games, good for 0.53 PTS/G. His 82 GP pace is 43 points, which would be the lowest pace in his career. His 8.1% SH% is 5.5% down from a year ago, and his 1.9 SOG/G is 1.0 worse than last season. Thus, it’s not surprising that Kane’s 17:10 TOI is down 1:13 from his first season in Detroit.
It just doesn’t seem like Kane is worth keeping for the long haul of the 24-25 season, especially since he is not effective in banger formats (8 hits, 3 blocks) or leagues that score plus/minus (-6). Thus, fantasy managers who roster him should fold on Kane and maybe look for other wing options on the waiver wire or through a trade (though he’s a sell-low guy at this point).
Defenseman: Brady Skjei, NSH (56% rostered)
It’s been rough for anyone who invested any kind of draft capital in Skjei this year.
The 30-year-old defenseman has only seven points in 20 GP this season. His PTS/G is 0.35 and his 82 GP point pace is 29, nearly 19 points down from his pace a season ago. He also has a -6 plus/minus, and a 4.9% SH%, both significant declines from where he was in previous years with Carolina.
He also has just been ice cold in his last 11 games, as he has only accumulated 1 point in that period. The shooting metrics don’t look promising either over that time frame.
His SOG/G is only 1.5, the SOG/60 is 4.2, the PDO is 944, and the 5-on-5 SH% is 6.9%. His 52.9% Corsi and 50.7% Fenwick over the past two weeks isn’t bad in itself, but it shows that managers who roster Skjei may not see significant increases in shot and point production anytime soon.
Skjei has traditionally been a penalty-kill defenseman in his career with the Hurricanes and Rangers. He’s kept that role with the Predators this season, as he has a short-hand ice % of 39% this year. While that percentage is slightly down from a season ago, he still is getting first-SH line duties with Roman Josi.
There is value to having Skjei on a fantasy roster, especially in leagues that count short-handed points (he had four last year). Furthermore, he still is posting solid banger stats, averaging 1.00 Hits/GP and 1.05 Blocks/GP.
However, he’s just been a black hole on the scoring end in fantasy, even for defenseman standards. Thus, I would fold on Skjei, especially since fantasy managers can find banger-friendly defensemen on the waiver wire in most leagues.
Goalie: Jordan Binnington, STL (83% rostered)
Dobber ranked Binnington as a tier 3 goalie in their Top 100 goalies ranking in the preseason (23rd overall). He initially got off to a good start, but hit a skid recently, with only one win and zero quality starts in his last six games played. Over that stretch, he also has a 3.68 GAA and 0.857 SV%, both mediocre marks.
That said, the numbers just haven’t been all that impressive for the Blues goalie this season, much to the chagrin of fantasy managers who drafted the 2019 Stanley Cup stud.
Binnington’s quality start percentage is 31.3%, down from 57.9%% last year. Furthermore, his really bad start percentage is 18.8%, up from 14% a season ago. He also has a GSAA of -6.04, and his GAA of 3.12 and 0.888 SV% are steps back from his numbers in 2023-2024 with the Blues (2.84 GAA and 0.913 SV%).
At the same time, I am not sure if fantasy hockey managers can just let go of Binnington, especially with the dearth of quality goalie depth in fantasy this year.
Additionally, backup Joel Hofer hasn’t been much better than Binnington, as Hofer has a GAA of 3.45, SV% of 0.893, and a QS% of 33.3%. At 24 years old, Hofer may be the long-term option, but Binnington’s the main goalie in St. Louis for the foreseeable future.
Based on that, Binnington should be a definite hold in leagues. Thankfully, he’s having a good start (so far) against San Jose on Thursday night, as he has only allowed one goal and saved 14 shots as the game goes into the third period.
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