Goalie "Studs and Duds": Week 9
Which Goalies Had Good Fantasy Weeks? And Who Didn't?
We have just finished week nine of the fantasy season and are starting week 10. It’s crazy to think we are ten weeks into the fantasy hockey season, but it is December, which means that fantasy hockey managers are reaching the dog days of the fantasy and NHL seasons.
It’s common to see managers abandon teams, especially if they have gotten off to rough starts. Furthermore, we are witnessing NHL teams start to unload players via trade, hoping they can begin the “retooling” process in preparation for 2025-2026.
The New York Rangers are one such team that made a trade and seems to be at a crossroads regarding its plan for next season and beyond, as evidenced by the trade of defenseman Jacob Trouba, their team captain.
Trade Spotlight: Trouba Goes to Anaheim
In some interesting NHL hot stove news today, the New York Rangers traded defenseman and captain Jacob Trouba to the Anaheim Ducks for Urho Vaakanainen and an Anaheim fourth-round pick.
In this edition of Goalie “Studs and Duds,” I look at six goalies and their performances from the past two weeks. I highlight that the goalies are doing well and standing out from their peers. In addition, I also examine goalies who are either on cold streaks or seeing reduced roles on their teams due to other goalies returning from injury/performing better lately.
Let’s analyze the goaltending “studs and duds” from week nine of the fantasy hockey season.
Stud: Stuart Skinner, EDM (96% rostered)
Skinner got off to a slow start this season, and his overall metrics showcase that. His GAA is decent at 2.92, and his quality start percentage is 50%. However, his GSAA is -4.27 for the year, and his SV% is only .892. For someone who was viewed as a Tier 1 goalie by Dobber in their Top 100 Goalie rankings in the preseason, fantasy managers expected more from the Edmonton goaltender at this point in the season.
Then again, this may just be who Skinner is in fantasy.
He also started last season slowly before winning 36 games and posting a GAA of 2.62, SV% of 0.905, and QS% of 59.3%. The Canadian-born goalie has been on a tear over the last two weeks, as he has three wins and four quality starts in his previous four games. He has produced a 1.35 GAA, 0.947 SV%, and 3.43 GSAA in his last three. The latter is an important metric, especially since it is 7.70 points higher than his season mark.
Now that Connor McDavid is back and healthy, Skinner and the Oilers may be finally hitting a groove, which makes sense. Then again, the 26-year-old goalie has a tough stretch coming up with home games against the Lightning (Dec. 10th) and Golden Knights (Dec. 14th) and an away game against Minnesota (Dec. 12th) this week. If he can hold his own against this formidable trio of opponents, he may be one of the top-performing fantasy goaltenders by the season's conclusion.
Dud: Juuse Saros, NSH (99% rostered)
Predators head coach Andrew Brunette has been utilizing Saros frequently this season with mixed results.
The Finnish goaltender has played in 23 of Nashville’s 28 games this year, and his numbers are pretty solid overall. He has a 2.66 GAA, 0.910 SV%, 5.84 GSAA, and a 52% QS%. However, he only has six wins, which seems pretty light for a goalie with a Really Bad Start percentage of only nine. Saros is not maximizing his fantasy value, especially in category leagues, though that’s not his fault, as the Predators are second-to-last in the Central with just 20 points.
It seems that Saros has been running out of gas a bit lately. He has zero wins and zero quality starts in his last six games and has produced a 3.35 GAA, 0.886 SV%, and -2.47 GSAA over that stretch.
Those aren’t bad metrics at the surface level, especially since Saros is playing more than typical in Nashville (which means he will accumulate good numbers in points and category leagues). However, for a Vezina candidate and goalie who managers likely spent considerable draft capital on this year, the recent rough slide is a bummer, especially if the other goalie options on one’s team aren’t stepping up.
Saros will turn it around again in the other categories like GAA, SV%, and GSAA. However, unless something dramatic happens to this Predators team, he likely will underperform in wins, which is an unfortunate blemish on a fantastic fantasy goaltending season thus far.
Stud: Adin Hill, VGK (84% rostered)
At one point, I didn’t know if Hill was that much of an upgrade over backup Ilya Samsonov. However, Hill has established himself as the premiere goaltender for a 39-point Vegas team sitting in first place in the Pacific division over the past two weeks.
The 28-year-old Canadian goaltender, who will be representing Canada in the Four Nations tournament this year, has been excellent in his last eight games, with six wins and quality starts. In four games in the previous two weeks, he is 3-0-1 with three quality starts, a 1.47 GAA, a 0.953 SV%, and a 6.57 GSAA. The Golden Knights are one of the hottest teams in hockey, and Hill’s goaltending is a big reason.
There’s a lot to like for fantasy managers who roster Hill. He has a 2.63 GAA, 0.905 SV%, and 44% QS% in 18 GP. He missed some time due to injury, which explains why he has fewer than 20 appearances. Since returning, though, he’s been lights out, which has regulated Samsonov to even fewer appearances.
Seen as a Tier 2 goalie by Dobber before the season, I am not sure I would hold Hill with the same kind of confidence as Skinner or even Saros. That said, he’s been on an incredible streak, and he benefits from a strong Vegas team that is healthier than ever, especially with the return of Mark Stone.
Dud: Pyotr Kochetkov, CAR (83% rostered)
Kochetkov is the “primary” goaltender in Carolina by sheer elimination. Fellow Hurricanes goaltender Fredrik Anderson just had knee surgery on November 21st, and he will be out for 8-12 weeks. Spencer Martin has made nine appearances this year for Carolina but hasn’t been great, as he has only one quality start and is posting a 3.89 GAA and 0.846 SV%.
The Russian goalie’s numbers are serviceable for a goaltender rated as a Tier 3 option in fantasy. He has 11 wins, a 69% winning percentage, a 44% QS%, and a GAA of 2.68. Conversely, his GSAA is -3.09, his SV% is only 0.893, and his RBS% is higher than desired at 31%.
The past two weeks have also been particularly frustrating for managers who roster him in fantasy.
In his last three games, he has zero quality starts, one win, a GAA of 3.82, and an SV% of 0.847. He also has a -3.87 GSAA over that three-game span, even worse than his already paltry overall GSAA.
Thus, Kochetkov seems to be trending in the wrong direction for a Hurricanes team with high hopes for the postseason (they’re third in the Metropolitan with 35 points). If this stretch continues, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Carolina trade for someone to boost their goaltending depth in the coming weeks, hurting Kochetkov’s already dwindling fantasy value.
Stud: Joonas Korpisalo, BOS (20% rostered)
Jeremy Swayman is the primary goalie in Boston. As a result, Korpisalo has not gotten many starts, with only ten appearances this season. However, the Finnish goalie has produced some respectable value in fantasy for a pure backup, especially in deep league formats.
In 10 games this year, Korpisalo has six wins, a 2.39 GAA, 0.909 SV%, 1.95 GSAA, and 60% QS%. He has a 2.46 GAA, 0.900 SV%, and a quality start in his last two games. His GSAA is low at -0.05, but he’s had a small sample over the past two weeks.
Swayman has been solid over the past two weeks, with a 2.21 GAA, 0.913 SV%, 1.57 GSAA, and 60% QS% in five games. Thus, Korpisalo may not be due for more appearances anytime soon.
That said, the 30-year-old Bruins backup could be a nice source for quality fantasy numbers in deep-league formats. It just won’t come in high quantities.
Dud: Lukas Dostal, ANA (50% rostered)
Dostal has been serviceable as a goaltender this season in Anaheim. In 15 appearances, he has six wins, a 2.73 GAA, a 0.921 SV%, a GSAA of 10.68, and 67% QS%. There haven’t been many goaltenders better than Dostal this season in terms of pure efficiency. It’s even more impressive when looking at how bad the Ducks team is (last in the Pacific with 23 points).
That said, the 24-year-old goalie's opportunities have been dwindling, as veteran John Gibson has been getting most of the starts lately for the Ducks.
Gibson has gotten four starts in the past two weeks, while Dostal has only gotten two. In that sample, Gibson produced a 2.81 GAA, 0.913 SV%, and 1.47 GSAA. As for Dostal, he has sported a 2.95 GAA, 0.898 SV%, and -0.16 GSAA. It’s not that Dostal has been bad. It’s just that he hasn’t done enough to overtake Gibson on the depth chart.
One would think the Ducks would likely trade Gibson at some point for more long-term roster capital, especially with Trevor Zegras on the shelf. However, they just traded for Jacob Trouba from the Rangers. Thus, in addition to leaning on veterans on the blue line like Trouba and Radko Gudas, they likely will lean on the veteran Gibson between the pipes for now, much to the dismay of fantasy managers holding onto Dostal.
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