Goalie "Studs and Duds" From Week 3
Which Goalies Had Good Fantasy Weeks? And Who Didn't?
It’s been a while since I posted here, and I thought this publication would go the way of the Dodo. However, after a few weeks of playing fantasy hockey (I am in two leagues again: one points league, the KKUPFL, and one categories league, both on Yahoo), I got the itch to do some fantasy hockey analysis. Thus, I have fired up the old Substack again with some new logos to go with the publication.
I probably won’t post a ton, but will try to focus more on goalies than skaters, to give the publication some clearer direction (which will help with posting and analysis). I will try to do a thorough piece on Sunday evening, and then maybe have a post on a light night during the week, to preview the upcoming weekend of games.
As illustrated in previous posts on this publication, I will primarily use stats from Dobber’s Frozen Tools, with some materials from TJ Stats, which offers hockey-related apps in addition to its baseball ones.
In this first post of the 2025-2026 season, I will look at the schedule ahead this week and share my goalie “studs” and “duds” through week three.
Looking at Week Four (And a Goalie to Stream)
October 28th is “Frozen Frenzy” day, meaning all teams are playing. That doesn’t make things easy for streaming purposes. That likely means it will be a light-streaming day for managers who like to maximize their lineup with different pickups throughout the week.
For those who want to stream, Detroit has two off-night games on Friday and Sunday, giving them the best schedule of the week, according to TJ Stats. The Islanders have the same off-night schedule, though I like Detroit’s Anaheim and San Jose road slates over New York’s Washington and Columbus combo (the Islanders get the Blue Jackets at home at least).
In terms of the goalie situation, the Islanders may be the better option for goalie streaming purposes. New York has had some goalie issues with their primary goaltender, Ilya Sorokin, so far this season (more on that later). Thus, fantasy managers may eye backup David Rittich as an option, with two starts possible this week.
Rittich is only rostered in 3% of Yahoo leagues and sports a 2.01 GAA, a .939 save percentage, and a GSAA of 2.60. He’s also had quality starts in both of his appearances, making him an efficient option between the pipes when he’s in.
Now, let’s look at our three goalie “studs” and three “duds” from week 3 (all rostered data comes from Yahoo).
Stud: Jakub Dobes, MON (42% Rostered)
It’s been a stellar start for the 24-year-old Czech goaltender, who’s coming off a pretty impressive 16-game campaign with the Canadiens.
Last season, Dobes went 7-4-3 with a 2.74 GAA, .909 save percentage, and 50% quality start percentage. As a result, Montreal has Dobes splitting time with incumbent starter Sam Montembault, and Dobes has been the one producing the much better numbers so far.
In five starts, Dobes has five wins, five quality starts, a GSAA of 6.00, a GAA of 1.77, and a save percentage of .940. Conversely, Montembault has two wins, one quality start, a GSAA of -7.00, a GAA of 3.82, and a save percentage of .842. Add that with a 60% Really Bad Start percentage (RBS), and it makes sense why some in Montreal are clamoring for the younger Dobes to take over as the primary starter.
I think it’s too early to give up on Montembault totally. However, fantasy managers with goalie needs should be picking up Dobes if he’s available on the waiver wire, though this week’s two-game slate for the Canadiens (tied for worst schedule this week, according to TJ Stats) doesn’t make him an ideal fit for those needing “immediate” production at goaltender.
Dud: Ilya Sorokin, NYI (93% Rostered)
Sorokin was identified as a Tier 1 goalie by Dobber and ranked sixth overall in their preseason Top 100 rankings. However, Sorokin has been anything but a Top-10 goalie so far this season in fantasy.
In six starts, the Russian goalie has only one quality start and two wins. He also is sporting a -4.30 GSAA, a .876 save percentage, and a GAA of 3.70. The Goals Saved Above Expected is only slightly below average at -0.45, and he does have a Quality Weeks% of 33.3, which hints at some positive regression soon. Still, for those who drafted Sorokin expecting him to carry your roster as your primary goalie, it’s been a rough go through the first three weeks (which I am experiencing in my KKUPFL league).
Stud: Alex Lyon, BUF (30% Rostered)
The Sabres have been a bit of a surprise this year. They have nine points, tying them for fourth in the Atlantic Division with Toronto and Ottawa and putting them ahead of Boston and Tampa Bay. It may just be a fast start, but it’s appreciated nonetheless by a tortured Sabres fanbase.
A key catalyst to the Sabres’ surprising start has been the play of Lyon between the pipes. According to Dobber, Lyon leads all goalies in KKUPFL points scoring with 48.9 points this year (a 6.99 FPTS/G mark), as of Sunday, October 26th. The 32-year-old Buffalo goalie’s fantasy points total is ahead of bigger names like Seattle’s Joey Daccord, Nashville’s Juuse Saaros, and Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck (who’s also the two-time reigning Vezina Trophy winner).
Lyon is also looking great in category formats as well, with three wins, six quality starts, a GSAA of 5.10, a GAA of 2.61, and a save percentage of .922. His 5.04 Goals Saved Above Expected is also solid, showing he’s been as legit as his stat line suggests. Buffalo has a three-game schedule this week with Columbus at home, Boston on the road (who play the previous night), and Washington at home. The Capitals (12 points) will be a tough test, but the Blue Jackets and Bruins (both eight points) should be more manageable matchups.
Dud: Dustin Wolf, CGY (96% Rostered)
Wolf was damn good last year in his first full season with the Flames. In 53 games, he collected 29 wins, and posted a 2.64 GAA, a .910 save percentage, and 56.6% quality start percentage.
It hasn’t quite been as smooth a start for the 24-year-old American goalie. In eight starts, he has only one win, and he is sporting a 3.68 GAA, a .875 save percentage, and 38% quality start percentage. His advanced data isn’t great either, as he has posted GSAA and GSAE of -5.60 and -6.1, respectively, so far this season.
This may be a rough stretch for Wolf and the Flames, who sit in the basement of the Pacific Division with only three points. However, it’s been a disappointing start for a Tier 1 goalie who was ranked No. 10 in Dobber’s preseason Top 100 goalie rankings. The Flames have a tough four-game road trip on the East Coast this week, with visits to Toronto, Ottawa, Nashville, and Philadelphia.
Stud: Elvis Merzlikins, CBJ (14% Rostered)
Merzlikins was ranked as a Tier 4 goalie and 38th overall in the preseason, according to Dobber. In KKUPFL points leagues, he’s accumulated 29.4 FPTS, putting him ahead of goalies such as Anaheim’s Lukas Dostal (27 points), Edmonton’s Stuart Skinner (26.4 points), and Vegas’ Akira Schmid (24.9 points).
In terms of categories, the 31-year-old Latvian has collected three wins and three quality starts in four games played. He also sports a 2.96 GAA, a .914 save percentage, a 2.00 GSAA, and 2.72 GSAE. Those are all good numbers, though he doesn’t have a ton of starts due to fellow Blue Jackets goalie Jet Greaves, who’s been nearly as impressive in the same number of starts this year.
Greaves has only one win, but has three quality starts, a GAA of 2.79, and a save percentage of .902. He is also rostered in 36% of Yahoo leagues, which shows that fantasy hockey managers think Greaves has the better upside this year and could earn more starts once Merzlikins begins to fade.
Nonetheless, Merzlikins has produced, and he could be a good streaming option, even if he isn’t generating a ton of starts in a given week.
Dud: Yaroslav Askarov, SJS (18% Rostered)
The highly touted young Russian goalie was expected to gain more time in the pipes, especially after Mackenzie Blackwood was traded to Colorado last year. It’s been a bit better tonight against Minnesota, as he has 16 saves and is holding a one-goal lead in the third period after allowing three goals to the Wild.
Still, it’s not quite the start Sharks fans were hoping for from Askarov.
In five starts, Askarov has no wins, one quality start, a 4.51 GAA, and an .858 save percentage. His -6.20 GSAA and -3.48 GSAE are also lackluster marks that haven’t generated much encouragement among fantasy managers and frustrated Sharks fans. As a result, veteran Alex Nedeljkovic has been splitting time with Askarov between the pipes and may earn more starts if the 23-year-old rookie continues to struggle.
It’s not like Nedeljkovic’s stats are all that better (which makes sense as the Sharks’ blue line isn’t great). He also has one win and one quality start, and his 4.00 GAA and .874 GSAA are only nominally better. Still, Askarov needs to bounce back if he wants to establish himself as the primary goalie in San Jose, which makes him a fantasy liability at the moment.
Photo Credit: David Kirouac-USA TODAY Sports