BetMGM and Sleeper Picks for Week 9
NHL Parlay and Daily Fantasy Picks for December 6th's Slate
We got a full slate of NHL games tonight, with 12 on deck for Saturday. The first game kicks off at 11:30 a.m. with the Avalanche taking on the Rangers.
In this post, I am going to focus on the evening slate, with all games starting at 6 p.m. or later. In addition to my normal Sleeper Picks, I am also going to include a BetMGM parlay for this evening’s slate. For those in Missouri, where sports gambling went live this week on December 1st, you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if you don’t win by inputting the promo code: GOALIEBET. More information about the promo and other promos (including Fanatics and FanDuel) can be found here.
Hence, let’s go into our BetMGM parlay pick and Sleeper picks for week nine for today’s NHL slate.
Week Nine BetMGM Parlay
Toronto Maple Leafs spread (-1.5) over Montreal Canadiens, +170
Los Angeles Kings moneyline over Chicago Blackhawks, -200
Over 6.5 goals between Winnipeg Jets and Edmonton Oilers, -105
+690 payout
In my first BetMGM parlay on Goalie Streamer, I’m focusing on two Canadian rivalry games and a Kings team sitting in third in the Pacific Division behind California rival Anaheim and the Las Vegas Golden Knights.
For the Leafs, Toronto is riding a hot offensive and defensive streak, scoring 16 goals in their last three games and allowing only 4.
The Canadiens will not have Sam Montembault in the net, who’s been struggling as of late, with only one win and one quality start in the last five. That said, this is a Montreal team that isn’t trending in the right direction, and they’re facing a streaking Maple Leafs squad on the road. I think Toronto easily covers in this one.
The Kings have lost three out of their last four, including their most recent contest to the Blackhawks. Los Angeles’ attack has been on a bit of a cold streak, with only four goals in their last three games. That said, their blue line has been solid, as they have only lost by one goal in two of their previous three losses. After a tough road defeat in Chicago, I believe the Kings bounce back at home in the rematch, with Adrian Kempe the key factor, as he was in their win against Vancouver.
Lastly, the Oilers and Jets are two squads that have been mostly offense as of late, with Edmonton scoring 22 goals in their last five games. The Jets will not have Connor Hellebuyck in the net, as he is on the Injured List due to knee surgery.
Furthermore, Stuart Skinner is projected to be in the net for the Oilers, but he can be a bit inconsistent, as illustrated by his 2.90 GAA and .887 save percentage this year. There will be a lot of goals in this game, which is why I picked the over 6.5 goals mark to complete this parlay.
Sleeper NHL Picks for Week 9
Sleeper has a 60% on NHL picks with five or more selections, which explains why I have five this week instead of the typical three or four. I did make “flex” picks, which gives me some grace if I miss one pick (I would still make money, but the max payout is a little lower).
In terms of my “over picks,” I am going with over 0.5 points for New Jersey’s Jesper Bratt, over 0.5 points for Nashville’s Filip Forsberg, and over 2.5 shots for St. Louis’ Jordan Kyrou.
Bratt is on a bit of a cold streak, with zero points in his last two games. Before that, he had back-to-back two-point efforts against Buffalo and Philadelphia on November 28th and 29th. His production has been a little lower than expected, a product of his 7.8% shooting percentage. However, I like them against the Bruins and goalie Jeremy Swayman, who has 3.86 GAA and .857 save percentage in his last three games.
Nashville will be a massive underdog against Carolina (Hurricanes are -1.5 goal favorites), and Forsberg is on a cold streak, with zero points in the last four games. That said, he still is averaging over three shots a game with a shooting percentage over 10 percent.
It won’t be an easy matchup for the Predators with Brandon Bussi projected to be in between the pipes for Carolina. He has only allowed one goal in his last two starts and has a save percentage of .964 over his past two games. Still, I think he may experience some regression on Saturday in a “less hyped” matchup with Nashville, which Forsberg could benefit from. Hopefully, he can snap that pointless streak on Saturday.
Lastly, in honor of those in Missouri, I am going with St. Louis’ Kyrou to record more than 2.5 shots against the Senators in Ottawa. The Blues have been a disappointment this year, and Kyrou has had his share of on and off-ice issues (he was benched a game earlier this season). Still, Kyrou has been one of their better shot producers in the past three games, as he is averaging 2.3 SOG/G over that time frame.
A promising trend for the Blues is that Ottawa goalie Linus Ullmark, who’s the projected starter, has been a mess recently. He is allowing a 4.02 GAA and an .830 save percentage in his last two starts. Expect the Blues and Kyro to benefit from Ottawa’s leaky defense and goaltending as of late.
For the under picks, I went with under 2.5 SOG for the Islanders’ Anders Lee and under 23.5 saves for Jakub Dobes, who’s going to start for the Canadiens in goal.
The Islanders have been great this year, as they are tied for third in the Metropolitan Division with 33 points. However, they have had their hands full with Tampa, especially Lee.
In their last game against the Lightning on December 2nd in Long Island, the Islanders beat the Lightning 2-1. However, Lee was shut out in terms of points and SOG. Anders is averaging 2.64 SOG/G this year, but I have a hard time seeing him hit that mark after getting shutout by the Tampa Bay blue line just four days ago, especially with the rematch in Tampa.
With a PDO of 989 and 65.2% IPP, I think Lee has a tough time getting involved in shooting and scoring opportunities in this one, much to the satisfaction of Lightning fans looking for revenge from their one-goal loss earlier this week.
My last Sleeper pick is Dobes, who’s producing a 3.11 GAA and .891 save percentage this year as the Canadiens’ backup goalie.
The deeper metrics don’t favor Dobes in this one. He has a GSAA of -2.53 and a GSAA/60 of -0.19. The GSAx is a little better at 0.2, but barely. He also has a 21% RBS%, which shows that he’s prone to awful outings from time to time, despite the high number of wins (9) for a backup.
The Canadiens will need a sterling performance from Dobes in this one, which means he needs to save more than 23.5 shots. I don’t see it happening tonight, especially with the Leafs looking like such a complete team recently.
Photo Credit: Jeff Roberson/AP